研究了中国外债适度规模及相关政策。在中国宏观外债同步时间序列模型基础上 ,建立了用 BP网络替代随机方程的模型 ,并结合求解一般抽象非线性方程组 F(x,y) =0的算法 ,进行仿真研究。样本期模拟检验结果指出 ,有 92 %的变量相对误差小于 5 %。应用该模型对中国外债管理方式(计划管理方式和余额管理方式 )和期限结构进行仿真研究 ,研究结果表明 ,这种研究方法是可行的、有效的。结果指出 :当中长期外债采取计划管理方式时 ,年借入外债量以不超过2 5 0亿美元为宜 ,建议不超过 2 0 0亿美元 Studied the appropriate scale of China’s foreign debt and related policies. Based on China’s macroeconomic debt synchronization time series model, a BP network model is established to replace stochastic equations, and the simulation is carried out with the algorithm of solving general abstract nonlinear equations F (x, y) = 0. Sample period simulation test results showed that 92% of the variables relative error less than 5%. This model is used to simulate China’s foreign debt management (program management and balance management) and term structure. The results show that this method is feasible and effective. The results show that: when medium and long-term foreign debts are planned and managed, the annual foreign borrowing amount should not exceed 250 billion U.S. dollars, and it is recommended not to exceed 20 billion U.S. dollars