论文部分内容阅读
为提高城市低碳交通政策选择的准确性,运用灰色关联和主成分分析相结合的综合集成赋权法,筛选低碳交通情景政策的指标集,设计4种情景政策,选择长期能源可替代规划(LEAP)系统模型进行不同情景政策的低碳交通政策效果测度计算。结果表明:公交发展政策和新能源发展政策对城市交通碳排放影响的重要度最高;采取低碳交通政策能显著控制碳排放,公交与新能源共同发展政策的效果最好,新能源发展政策效果略好于公交发展政策;碳排放量、碳排放强度、减排贡献率三方面的计算结论具有很强的一致性,说明该方法可信度高,能为决策部门选择中长期的城市低碳交通政策提供客观、定量、可行的方法参考。
In order to improve the accuracy of urban low-carbon transportation policy selection, we select the indicator set of low-carbon transport scenario policy by using the integrated integrated weighting method combining gray relation and principal component analysis. We design four kinds of scenario policies and choose long-term energy alternative plan (LEAP) system model to measure the effect of low-carbon traffic policy under different scenarios and policies. The results show that bus development policy and new energy development policy have the most important impact on urban transport carbon emissions; low carbon transport policy can significantly control carbon emissions, public transport and new energy development policy is the best, the effect of new energy development policy Slightly better than the bus development policy; carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity, emission reduction contribution rate of three aspects of the calculation has a strong consistency, indicating that the method of high credibility, for the decision-making department to select the city’s low-carbon long-term Traffic policy provides objective, quantitative and feasible method reference.