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目的探讨应用ARIMA模型预测梅毒发病趋势的可行性,为预防控制梅毒流行提供依据。方法应用SPSS 18.0对2005-2014年衢州市梅毒逐月发病率建立ARIMA模型,并对2015年梅毒发病率进行预测分析。结果 ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12能较好拟合既往梅毒的发病率,2014年梅毒月发病率预测值和实际值的平均相对误差为11.89%,实际值均在预测95%CI内。结论 ARIMA模型能有效地预测梅毒发病趋势,为制定防控措施和策略提供科学的依据。
Objective To explore the feasibility of using ARIMA model to predict the trend of syphilis and provide basis for prevention and control of syphilis epidemic. Methods SPSS 18.0 was used to establish the ARIMA model of monthly syphilis incidence in Quzhou from 2005 to 2014. The incidence of syphilis in 2015 was estimated. Results ARIMA (2,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 can better fit the incidence of syphilis in the past. The average relative error between the predicted and actual rates of monthly syphilis incidence in 2014 was 11.89%. The actual values Predict 95% CI. Conclusion The ARIMA model can effectively predict the incidence of syphilis and provide a scientific basis for the development of prevention and control measures and strategies.