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近年来,我国CPI波动较大,对宏观经济和房地产市场产生了较大影响。为探明CPI对房地产市场的影响,本文利用VAR模型分析了CPI和商品住宅销售面积两者之间的关系,以及CPI对住宅销售面积的脉冲响应函数。结果表明:CPI和住宅销售面积存在协整关系,CPI对住宅销售面积的冲击短期内较大,长期影响并不明显。
In recent years, the CPI in China fluctuates greatly, which has a great impact on the macro-economy and the real estate market. In order to find out the impact of CPI on the real estate market, this paper analyzes the relationship between CPI and the sales area of commercial residential buildings by means of VAR model, and impulse response function of CPI to residential sales area. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between CPI and residential sales area. The impact of CPI on residential sales area is larger in the short term and the long-term impact is not obvious.