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工业是中国能源消费的主体,对工业内部各行业能源利用效率和结构变化的深入剖析有助于决策者制定有针对性的具体政策措施。基于改进的差值分解法,本文把1997年-2007年中国工业能源消费强度变化分解为结构效应和效率效应。结果表明,过去10年间中国工业能源消费强度的下降基本上归因于效率效应,其总体贡献率达90.48%。对工业内部36个部门的能源消费强度变化的分解结果显示,化学原料及化学制品业、非金属矿物制品业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、有色金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力工业等部门的效率效应对降低全国工业能源消费强度的贡献最大,但同期高耗能冶金工业规模扩张产生的结构效应在一定程度上抵消了效率效应。未来中国工业节能降耗的政策设计应重点关注高耗能重化工业的能源利用效率,并适度控制这些部门在工业中所占的比重,避免产能过度扩张。
Industry is the main body of China’s energy consumption. An in-depth analysis of the energy efficiency and structural changes in various industries within the industry helps decision makers to formulate specific and specific policy measures. Based on the improved difference decomposition method, this paper decomposes the change of China’s industrial energy consumption intensity from 1997 to 2007 into the structural effect and efficiency effect. The results show that the decline in the intensity of China’s industrial energy consumption in the past 10 years is basically attributed to the efficiency effect, with an overall contribution rate of 90.48%. The result of the decomposition of changes in energy consumption intensity of 36 sectors in the industry shows that the chemical raw materials and chemical products industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, power industry and other departments The efficiency effect has the greatest contribution to reducing the national industrial energy consumption intensity. However, the structural effect caused by the expansion of the high-energy-consumption metallurgical industry over the same period has offset the efficiency effect to a certain extent. In the future, China’s policy on industrial energy-saving and energy-saving should focus on the energy efficiency of the high-energy-consuming heavy and chemical industries, moderately control the proportion of these sectors in the industry and avoid over-expansion of production capacity.