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有效的房地产调控,既要实现稳定房价、控制房地产开发投资过快增长等调控目标,同时也不会对宏观经济带来过大的负面影响.在分析各类房地产调控政策传导机制的基础上,通过构建PCA-VAR模型,并综合运用了协整分析、Granger因果检验、方差分解和脉冲效应分析等方法,细致测算了房地产信贷政策对房地产市场和宏观经济的影响,据此为我国实施房地产调控提供政策建议.
Effective regulation and control of real estate, it is necessary to stabilize housing prices, control the rapid growth of investment in real estate development and other regulatory objectives, but also will not bring too much negative impact on the macroeconomic.Based on the analysis of various types of real estate regulatory policy, based on the transmission mechanism, Through the construction of PCA-VAR model and the comprehensive application of cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse effect analysis, the impact of real estate credit policy on the real estate market and macroeconomic is carefully calculated, so as to implement real estate regulation and control of our country Provide policy advice.