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枫树坝水库降雨径流概念性模型的建立及其自动采集系统的完善，为枫树坝水库洪水实时预报校正研究 提供了前提条件。概念性水文模型考虑因素尽管较全面，但汇流经验单位线计算流量过程精度有待提高。基于洪 水预报误差信息，对一阶自回归模型自适应递推、二阶自回归自适应递推和卡尔曼滤波校正方法进行研究分析。 实际洪水与模拟计算结果对比分析表明，二阶自回归递推和卡尔曼滤波校正计算方法提高了洪水预报精度。
The establishment of the conceptual model of rainfall runoff in Fengshuba Reservoir and the improvement of its automatic acquisition system provide the preconditions for the research on the real-time forecasting and correction of flood in Fengshuba Reservoir. Although the conceptual hydrological model considerations are more comprehensive, the accuracy of the flow calculation process of confluence empirical unit lines needs to be improved. Based on the error information of flood forecasting, adaptive recursion of first-order autoregressive model, second-order autoregressive adaptive recursion and Kalman filter correction method are studied and analyzed. The comparative analysis of the actual flood and simulation results shows that the second-order autoregression recursion and the Kalman filter correction calculation method improve the flood forecasting accuracy.