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社会融资结构作为我国金融改革发展的重要指标,是经济收敛的主要影响因素之一。本文在对中国社会融资结构变迁进行特征描述,建立社会融资结构与经济收敛关系模型的基础上,基于2002—2016年的时间序列数据验证了两者关系。结果表明两者存在格兰杰因果关系,社会融资结构的变迁促进了经济收敛。在社会融资结构的组成部分中,只有人民币贷款与经济收敛存在格兰杰因果关系,委托贷款是社会融资结构的格兰杰原因。据此建议,在未来我国金融结构的变化中需重视社会融资结构内部协调共进,以满足经济发展和转型经济中多元化的融资需求。
As an important index of China’s financial reform and development, the structure of social financing is one of the major influencing factors of economic convergence. Based on the characterization of the social financing structure change in China and the establishment of a model of the relationship between social financing structure and economic convergence, this paper verifies the relationship between the two based on time series data from 2002 to 2016. The result shows that there exists Granger causality between them and the change of social financing structure promotes economic convergence. Among the components of social financing structure, only Granger causality exists between RMB loans and economic convergence. Entrusted loans are Granger causes of social financing structure. Accordingly, we suggest that in the future changes of our country’s financial structure, we should pay attention to the coordination within the social financing structure so as to meet the diversified financing needs in economic development and transitional economy.