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当前国内外宏观经济研究的通行方法,对深圳各主要经济指标的运行态势进行了较为全面的监测与分析,发现深圳各主要经济指标都存在着明显的增长率周期波动,根据深圳各主要经济指标增长率周期波动的特点及其相互关系(超前、一致与滞后的时差关系),建立起了深圳经济景气分析系统。在此基础上,对深圳目前宏观经济形势的基本特点做出了判断,并对今年下半年的经济走势做出了全面预测。
The prevailing macroeconomic research methods both at home and abroad have carried out a more comprehensive monitoring and analysis on the operational status of major economic indicators in Shenzhen and found that there are obvious cyclical fluctuations in growth rates in all major economic indicators in Shenzhen. According to the major economic indicators in Shenzhen, The growth cycle of the characteristics of the cyclical fluctuations and their interrelationships (advanced, consistent and lagged lag time difference), established the Shenzhen economic boom analysis system. On this basis, we make a judgment on the basic characteristics of Shenzhen’s current macroeconomic situation and make a comprehensive forecast on the economic trend in the second half of this year.