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2007年下半年,金融市场动荡不安,美元越跌越急,就像扶不起的阿斗。一些央行为之失望,减持美元储备、保全资产成为他们不约而同的行为。然而数字显示全球美元储备的绝对额并未因此而下跌,其是否真的在减少仍存悬疑。答案还未得到证实前,投资者的心理预期推动美元持续走低。有人预测随着市场行情的恶化,美元可能将从有序下跌变成失控性暴跌。美元走势是否将愈跌愈烈?亚洲金融市场能否承受住美元下跌、本币升值的压力?美元疲软是否正在向亚洲金融市场转移风险?然而对于投机者而言,有风险就有机会,在对美联储连续降息的预期和美元疲软不振的走势下,用美元融资进行套利不失为理想的选择,美元能否取代日元成为市场套利交易融资的新秀?日元凭借套利交易平仓,投资者转换融资货币币种的情况下,能否借助美元疲软扭转其长期下跌走势?2008年国际汇市会发生怎样的变化?一系列的悬疑等待求证。
In the second half of 2007, the financial market was in turmoil and the dollar fell more and more urgently. It was like a bullfight that could not be helped. Some central banks disappointed them, reducing the dollar reserves, asset preservation as their spontaneous behavior. However, the figures show that the absolute amount of global dollar reserves has not dropped, and whether it is really dwindling remains suspenseful. Before the answer is confirmed, investor psychology is expected to push the dollar lower continuously. Some predict that with the deteriorating market conditions, the dollar may fall from orderly fall into uncontrollable plunge. Will the dollar move further and further? Will the Asian financial markets withstand the pressure of a falling dollar and a stronger domestic currency? Is the weak dollar moving risk into the Asian financial markets? Yet for the speculators, there is a chance of risk. Fed expected continuous interest rate cuts and the weak US dollar trend, arbitrage with the dollar financing is an ideal choice, the dollar can replace the yen as a rookie in the market arbitrage transactions? Japanese yen arbitrage transactions with open positions, investors convert financing currency In the case of currency, can we reverse the long-term downtrend with the weak US dollar? What changes will occur in the international currency market in 2008? A series of suspense waiting for confirmation.