论文部分内容阅读
2015年8月11日,希腊政府和债权人就第三轮救助内容达成协议。此后,希腊和德国议会分别于8月14日和19日通过了该救助计划。未来3年,希腊将获得约860亿欧元的救助资金。通过从资产负债表角度分析此前两轮援助失效的原因,我们认为,本轮救助方案虽然有助于缓解希腊短期的流动性危机,但在希腊的经济结构难以有效调整的情况下,政府、企业和居民的资产负债表无法得到实质性改善。因此,很难通过此轮救助摆脱债务危机的阴霾。鉴于以德国为首的主要债权国在欧元区固定汇率下,利用外需有效拉动经济增长,且在希腊退欧后将面临巨大损失,希腊危机很可能最终得到解决。结合已有高负债国家化解债务危机的经验,我们认为,债权国最终很可能通过旧债换新债配合债务减免(布雷迪方案)来解决希腊危机,但债权国国内的多方压力决定了此救助方案难以一蹴而就,希腊局势很可能在“一度好转”与“再度恶化”之间摇摆。总的来看,希腊危机对我国金融稳定的影响相对有限,但对希腊形势未来短期恶化可能带来的冲击,仍需引起高度重视。结合这一判断,我们提出了完善开放条件下总需求管理体系,优化金融监管框架,加强外汇储备管理等建议。
On August 11, 2015, the Greek government and creditors reached an agreement on the third bailout. Since then, Greece and Germany parliament adopted the rescue plan on August 14 and 19 respectively. In the next three years, Greece will receive about 86 billion euros of aid funds. From the perspective of balance sheet analysis of the reasons for the failure of the previous two rounds of aid, we believe that this round of relief programs will help alleviate Greece’s short-term liquidity crisis, but in Greece’s economic structure is difficult to effectively adjust the circumstances, the government, business And residents’ balance sheets can not be substantially improved. Therefore, it is difficult to get out of the shadow of the debt crisis through this round of rescue. Given that the major creditor countries led by Germany, under the fixed exchange rate of the euro area, are effectively using their external demand to stimulate economic growth and will face enormous losses after Greece withdraws from the EU, the Greek crisis is likely to be finally resolved. In combination with the experience of the countries with high indebtedness in resolving the debt crisis, we think that it is probable that the creditor countries will eventually settle the Greek crisis through replacing old debt with debt relief (Brady scheme), but the multi-party domestic pressure of the creditor countries determines the rescue The solution is difficult to accomplish in one move, and the situation in Greece is likely to swing between “once improved” and “once again deteriorated.” On the whole, the impact of the Greek crisis on China’s financial stability is relatively limited. However, the possible impact on the future short-term deterioration of the situation in Greece still needs to be given high priority. Combined with this judgment, we put forward suggestions on improving the general demand management system under open conditions, optimizing the financial regulatory framework, and strengthening the management of foreign exchange reserves.