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目的分析2014年深圳市登革热疫情时空分布特征。方法基于2014年深圳市登革热本地病例数据和人口数据,建立地理信息数据库,采用ArcGIS 10.2和SaTScan软件进行全局、局部空间自相关分析及时空扫描聚类分析,确定登革热时空热点区域。结果 2014年深圳市登革热本地病例高发于9、10月,本地病例高聚集区在深圳市西南区域,聚集中心为深圳市蛇口、招商和粤海街道(对数似然比为44.46,相对危险度为7.30,P<0.001)。结论登革热疫情存在明显的时空聚集特征,为制定登革热防控策略和评价防制效果提供了参考。
Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue fever in Shenzhen in 2014. Methods Based on the local case data and population data of dengue fever in Shenzhen in 2014, a geographic information database was set up. ArcGIS 10.2 and SaTScan software were used for global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatio-temporal scanning cluster analysis to identify temporal and spatial hotspots of dengue fever. Results In 2014, local cases of dengue fever were found in Shenzhen in September and October. The high concentration of local cases was found in the southwestern region of Shenzhen. The centers of aggregation were Shenzhen Shekou, China Merchants and Guangdong Street (log likelihood ratio was 44.46, relative risk 7.30, P <0.001). Conclusion The epidemic situation of dengue has obvious characteristics of space-time accumulation, which provides a reference for dengue prevention and control strategy and evaluation of control effect.