论文部分内容阅读
空管系统的安全风险评估在很大程度上依赖于专家给出的经验数据,这类数据的不确定性会降低评估结果的可靠性。结合空管运行的实际情况,利用模糊评价理论对危险发生后果的严重程度进行评估,在专家问卷的基础上利用不确定理论中的不确定分布估计对危险发生的可能性进行估算,变不确定数据为确定,并结合实例进行了实例计算。该方法能够较好地收集和处理数据,可操作性和实用性强,对更加合理地评价空中交通管理系统安全状态具有参考价值。
The safety risk assessment of ATC systems relies heavily on the empirical data provided by experts. The uncertainty of such data will reduce the reliability of the assessment results. Combined with the actual situation of ATC operation, the fuzzy evaluation theory is used to evaluate the severity of the consequences of the danger. Based on the expert questionnaire, the uncertainty distribution in the uncertainty theory is used to estimate the possibility of the danger. Data for the determination, combined with examples of an instance calculation. The method can collect and process data well and has good operability and practicability, which is of reference value for evaluating the air traffic management system security state more rationally.