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基于1994—2013年江西省14个农业气象观测站早稻生育期和产量结构数据、气象数据和2005—2013年的逐时气温数据,分析了近20年高温逼熟灾害发生的趋势和高温逼熟灾害发生时气温的日变化特征,以早稻成熟期30、32、34、35、36和37℃以上有效积热及累计时长作为高温因子,与千粒重和单产进行相关分析,与减产率进行回归分析。结果表明:1)1994—1999年,研究区域未发生高温逼熟灾害。2000年及以后,除2004年,高温逼熟每年都有发生,且呈现增多增强趋势;2)赣中区域受高温逼熟灾害影响最严重,其次是赣北,赣南影响最小;3)当日最高气温超过35、36或37℃时,每天有3~4h超过这一界限气温;4)积热与产量及产量因子的相关性比高温时长更大;5)2005年以后,江西省农业气象观测站受高温逼熟灾害影响导致双季早稻单产损失3.9%~18.9%。
Based on the data of the growth period and yield structure, the meteorological data and the hourly temperature data from 2005 to 2013 of 14 agrometeorological observatories in Jiangxi Province from 1994 to 2013, the trend of the occurrence of high-temperature ripening disaster in the past 20 years and the ripening of high temperature The diurnal variation of air temperature at the onset of disasters was analyzed by the correlation analysis of 1000-grain weight and yield with the effective cumulative heat of 30, 32, 34, 35, 36 and above 37 ℃ and the cumulative duration as the high temperature factor during the early rice ripening stage, . The results show that: 1) During 1994-1999, no high-temperature ripening disaster occurred in the study area. After 2000 and later, in addition to 2004, the ripening of high temperature occurred every year and showed a tendency of increase and increase. 2) The area affected by the high temperature ripening disaster in the central Jiangxi Province was the worst, followed by Jiangxi and North Jiangxi; and 3) When the maximum temperature exceeds 35, 36 or 37 ℃, the daily temperature exceeds this limit for 3 ~ 4h; 4) The correlation between heat accumulation and yield and yield factors is longer than that of high temperature; 5) After 2005, Observatory affected by high temperature ripening disaster led to double crop yield of early rice 3.9% ~ 18.9%.