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When Chinese Premier Li Keqiang made the oath to “fight against the pollution like fighting against poverty”， everyone wants to know how the smog will affect the Chinese GDP growth. A survey initiated by Southern Weekly found that the smog has already penetrated into the tiny aspects of the Chinese economy and could impact the economic in an unimaginable way.
From GDP， CPI and financial deficit to energy， steel， property and agriculture， t h e C h i n e s e economic veins could find the subtleties of the smog.
“How many percentage points would the GDP growth rate drop had the smog been completely removed？” There is no certain answer to the economic field， but an undeniable truth is that the smog and other environmental factors have already been attached to the analysis frame of the economics. The dealing with smog is actually the process of “removing the bubble” from the Chinese economy.
Tomatoes， peppers， houses and power stations
What connections could be found among tomatoes and peppers in Beijing， houses in Sanya and solar power stations in Shanghai？ The answer is the smog.
Recently， He Dongcan， associate professor of China University of Agri-culture， found that the smog delayed the maturation of tomatoes and peppers in her green house by at least 30 days. The smog has shielded the sunlight， massively reducing the photosynthesis of the plants. The newly grown plants are not only weak， but also much less nutrient.
In Sanya， Lu Na， a house dealer， received a larger number of buyers from Beijing and Hebei. “People from Beijing could take 20% of the total number of buyers，” she said. When the property market in China cooled down， the housing market in Hainan rose quickly this February against all odds. Xie Yifeng， president of Sanya Association of Urban Housing， confirmed the drastic increase in the demand for residential houses in Hainan， to which the smog ironically became one of the main contributors.
In Shanghai， the Shanghai Insti- tute of Microsystem and Information Technology under Chinese Academy of Sciences found after tests that the smog has greatly reduced the efficiency of the solar power stations. On December 4， 2013， a sunny day， the system showed that the working hours of photovoltaic generators amounted to 2.79 hours； on December 6， Shanghai was shrouded by smog and the photovoltaic generators only worked for 0.7 hours， with the efficiency down 80%.
In addition to that， the smog has led to the frequent problems in the device operation. From January 21 to 23， 2013， the railway connecting Hohhot and Baotou witnessed six accidents of futile electric wire connection. Another group of experiments in Beijing said that the smog has brought the air heat source bumps down to knees twice and each lasted 15 hours.
It is not exaggerated to say that the breeding industry was also affected by the smog. Mr. Liu， a manager working for SinoFarm， said that the milk cows were dispirited onto a smoggy day. “They seem to be more retarded and less lively than in the smogless days.”
In the spring of 2014， the smog is applying its force onto half of the land of China. After the first effect brought by the smog to human bodies – the respiratory and health problems – emerged， the second wave of impact， namely the impact on the Chinese economy， gradually surfaced out of the water.
The meaning of the lasting smog means more than the sale of gauze masks and air cleaner for the Chinese economy. Though these deals dubbed the “smog-inspired economy” is the fastest and most direct response to the worsened environment， the smog， and other environmental pollution cases， are affecting every part of the Chinese economy.
The Global Influence
The influence from the smog on the economy has become an inevitable topic for the government and economic filed.
In the past year， the slowdown of Chinese economy has already raised enough concerns. From the second quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2013， the Chinese economic growth rate dropped for 13 straight quarters. Against that background， the outburst of the environmental problems represented by the smog undoubtedly brings the stress to the economic growth.
“When the Chinese economy is in the face of slowed growth caused by structural changes， the smog means a heavier burden over the development，”said Zhang Ping， deputy director of the Economic Institute under Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The analysts from China Construction Bank believed the bear in the A-share market starting from February 2014 is believed to be an evidence of the worsened environment’s impact over the economic growth.
The environmental problems and their impact over the economy are also under the spotlight of the world. The slowdown of Chinese economy provided the hotbed for the saying about “deterioration” and “hard-landing” of Chinese economy in the world. The deterioration of the environment， as said by foreign media， has become a grand threat against the social stability and economic reform of China. “This impact is not limited to China. It could be spread to the world，” said Zhuang Jian， senior economist of Asia Development Bank’s representative office in China.
What’s under the spotlight is the economic loss caused by the smog. Asia Development Bank and Tsinghua University once worked out a report， saying that the loss the air pollution brings to Chinese economy every year could account for 1.2% of the GDP based on the cost of illness approach， or 3.8% based on the will of payment approach.
Mu Quan and Zhang Shiqiu from the School of Environment Sciences and Engineering initiated the research into the loss of social economy caused by the smog in January 2013. they found that the one month’s smog at that time caused the direct loss of at least 23 billion yuan the transportation and health systems in China. Of them， the delayed flights caused the loss of 270 million yuan； the sealed expressways lost the tolls of 188 million yuan and the cost of treatment for the smog-caused disease amounted to 22.6 billion yuan.
During the six smoggy days from February 21 to 26， 2014， the government of Shijiazhuang closed， or limited the production of 2，025 enterprises and reduced the electricity output. In addition， 146 open mines and 35 underground mines were closed， along with all sandpits， leading to the direct loss of 6.03 billion yuan.
How Dealing with Smog Affects the GDP？
Cao Heping， vice president of the Economics School of Beijing University， said that the influence of smog over China’s GDP is undoubtedly one of the most attention-worthy problems for the decision-makers. A leader of a core governmental department once directly asked him： “how many percentage points would Chinese economy drop had the smog been completely been removed？”
The survey made by Southern Weekly found that most of interviewed economists （12 out of 18） believed that the dealing with smog will have large impact over the Chinese economy in a short while. Five economists said the impact needs to be watched for a while. Only Justin Yifu Lin said that the environmental issues will not affect the economic growth.
Fang Sihai， chief economist from Hongyuan Securities， said that the dealing with smog will lower the GDP growth rate by 0.5 percent in 2014 （Previously， he forecast that the economic growth rate of China is expected to reach 7%. “It is not a disaster if the economic growth rate dropped to that level，” he sad. Guan Qingyou， vice president of the Research Institute of Minsheng Bank， said that the smog problem might be an important factor for the government to re-define the objective of economic growth next year. Apart from short-term problems in economic development， the deterioration of environment in the long term might accelerate the vanishing of China’s“population dividends”， as warned by Lu Zhengwei， chief economist of Industrial Bank. Many economists attributed the fast economic growth of China in the past 30 years to the release of “population dividends”. According to Lu Zhengwei， there have been enough researches and tests to confirm the connection between the smog and the shortened lifespan in North China or the rising morbidity of cancer in China. “The environmental protection plays an important in the expected lifespan of people in a country，” said Lu Zhengwei. “In the future， the environmental issues might cause the increasingly serious problem in the payment of pension funds.”
The universal shortage in the systematic quantitative analysis， the economists could not give a clear answer to the question put forward by Chinese political leaders， but the influence remains there and it is going to be big.
Resource Re-allocation or Interest Redistribution
By now， both the central government and local authorities of China have invested massively in the dealing with the smog.
Qingdao announced the investment of 460 million yuan to handle the smog. Wuhan is going to put 28 billion yuan reducing the smog in the next four years. Beijing， above all， is going to spend 760 billion yuan to get back the clean air…. The central government is throwing more capital into this field. The Ministry of Finance set up a fund with 5 billion yuan to abate the air pollution in Beijing， Tianjin and Hebei. The State Council published the Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Disposal， according to which 1.75 trillion yuan is going to be raised and invested through enterprises， social funds， private donations and price leverage.
Dealing with smog has already boosted the environmental protection-related products and industry. The data from Taobao.com showed the 181% more people – compared with a year before –bought gauze masks from Taobao.com by November 30， 2013， and the number of consumers having bought air cleaners increased by 131%. The total spending on gauze masks， air cleaners and other products related to the smog amounted to 870 million yuan.
The pharmaceutical enterprises began to invest into the drugs to treat the health problems caused by PM2.5. One of them is Guangzhou Pharma， the sales of its drugs to clean the respiratory system and deal with coughing increased dramatically in these months. Wang Jinnan， deputy director of the Environmental Planning Institute at the Ministry of Environmental Protection， figured out the cost of air pollution prevention and disposal. The steel industry will suffer the loss of 81.2 billion yuan； the cement and coke industry will have to respectively endure the loss of 16.7 billion yuan and 14.2 billion yuan. Chen Yafei， a fellow with the Coal Chemical Institute under China Academy of Coal Sciences， said that the golden age of coal which lasted 10 years was already ended with the slowdown in economic growth and clean energy.
The international trade of iron ore was impacted as well. In order to meet the increasingly strict air quality standards， the steel plants and power plants are looking for raw materials with lower sulfur contents. The global mineral giants that can provide high-quality iron ores and coals will greatly benefit from this. The experts forecast that the efforts in China might drive out the small iron ore suppliers from Iran， Mexico and Vietnam， but will provide grand opportunities for Vale， BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto to increase their exports to China.
After the end of golden age of the traditional coal， power and steel industry， China is going to face the golden age of new energy and environmental protection. Credit Suisse’s analysts pointed out the energy from waste， pollution and waste disposal and cement disposal will have fast increase in the next five years. China is believed to initiate the 10-year or longer investment into the stricter environmental regulation and the green technologies.
To Remove the Economic Bubbles
The dealing with smog indeed leads to the re-allocation of resources. Zuo Xiaolei， chief economist of Galaxy Securities， said that the handling of smog was just to return the economy to its natural form.”
“I strongly objected the saying that handling the smog will reduce the economic growth rate. This is not rational，”she said. The essence of dealing with the smog is actually to remove the “bubbles”from Chinese economy， which is a proof that the past growth is not substantial. Now， more and more economists put the environmental protection into the consideration of Chinese economy.
Liu Shengjun from CEIBS Lujiazui International Finance Research Center said that the smog has highlighted the environmental cost of Chinese economy and equalized the cost of economic development since the air is the same to every people. It reminded people of another question： can the cost of handling smog be shared as well？
Jia Kang， head of the Financial Science Institute at the Ministry of Finance， put forward this sensitive question in the parliamentary sessions ending March 14. In his opinion， China should dissolve the threat from worsening environment through economic methods， which include various kinds of environment and resource taxes.
In 2014， the taxes imposed on coal and rare earth might be launched. In addition， China needs to improve the pricing system for processed oil， unify the price for natural gas， use tiered water and gas pricing.
Then， the g o v e r n m e n t needs to keep the low-income earners from suffering worse life because of the environmental protection. The middle class should be encouraged to get involved in fighting against the smog in an acceptable pattern.
All in all， the key to continuing the fight against the smog rests with the top decision-makers’ determination. This is related to the future outlook of Chinese economy.
From GDP， CPI and financial deficit to energy， steel， property and agriculture， t h e C h i n e s e economic veins could find the subtleties of the smog.
“How many percentage points would the GDP growth rate drop had the smog been completely removed？” There is no certain answer to the economic field， but an undeniable truth is that the smog and other environmental factors have already been attached to the analysis frame of the economics. The dealing with smog is actually the process of “removing the bubble” from the Chinese economy.
Tomatoes， peppers， houses and power stations
What connections could be found among tomatoes and peppers in Beijing， houses in Sanya and solar power stations in Shanghai？ The answer is the smog.
Recently， He Dongcan， associate professor of China University of Agri-culture， found that the smog delayed the maturation of tomatoes and peppers in her green house by at least 30 days. The smog has shielded the sunlight， massively reducing the photosynthesis of the plants. The newly grown plants are not only weak， but also much less nutrient.
In Sanya， Lu Na， a house dealer， received a larger number of buyers from Beijing and Hebei. “People from Beijing could take 20% of the total number of buyers，” she said. When the property market in China cooled down， the housing market in Hainan rose quickly this February against all odds. Xie Yifeng， president of Sanya Association of Urban Housing， confirmed the drastic increase in the demand for residential houses in Hainan， to which the smog ironically became one of the main contributors.
In Shanghai， the Shanghai Insti- tute of Microsystem and Information Technology under Chinese Academy of Sciences found after tests that the smog has greatly reduced the efficiency of the solar power stations. On December 4， 2013， a sunny day， the system showed that the working hours of photovoltaic generators amounted to 2.79 hours； on December 6， Shanghai was shrouded by smog and the photovoltaic generators only worked for 0.7 hours， with the efficiency down 80%.
In addition to that， the smog has led to the frequent problems in the device operation. From January 21 to 23， 2013， the railway connecting Hohhot and Baotou witnessed six accidents of futile electric wire connection. Another group of experiments in Beijing said that the smog has brought the air heat source bumps down to knees twice and each lasted 15 hours.
It is not exaggerated to say that the breeding industry was also affected by the smog. Mr. Liu， a manager working for SinoFarm， said that the milk cows were dispirited onto a smoggy day. “They seem to be more retarded and less lively than in the smogless days.”
In the spring of 2014， the smog is applying its force onto half of the land of China. After the first effect brought by the smog to human bodies – the respiratory and health problems – emerged， the second wave of impact， namely the impact on the Chinese economy， gradually surfaced out of the water.
The meaning of the lasting smog means more than the sale of gauze masks and air cleaner for the Chinese economy. Though these deals dubbed the “smog-inspired economy” is the fastest and most direct response to the worsened environment， the smog， and other environmental pollution cases， are affecting every part of the Chinese economy.
The Global Influence
The influence from the smog on the economy has become an inevitable topic for the government and economic filed.
In the past year， the slowdown of Chinese economy has already raised enough concerns. From the second quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2013， the Chinese economic growth rate dropped for 13 straight quarters. Against that background， the outburst of the environmental problems represented by the smog undoubtedly brings the stress to the economic growth.
“When the Chinese economy is in the face of slowed growth caused by structural changes， the smog means a heavier burden over the development，”said Zhang Ping， deputy director of the Economic Institute under Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The analysts from China Construction Bank believed the bear in the A-share market starting from February 2014 is believed to be an evidence of the worsened environment’s impact over the economic growth.
The environmental problems and their impact over the economy are also under the spotlight of the world. The slowdown of Chinese economy provided the hotbed for the saying about “deterioration” and “hard-landing” of Chinese economy in the world. The deterioration of the environment， as said by foreign media， has become a grand threat against the social stability and economic reform of China. “This impact is not limited to China. It could be spread to the world，” said Zhuang Jian， senior economist of Asia Development Bank’s representative office in China.
What’s under the spotlight is the economic loss caused by the smog. Asia Development Bank and Tsinghua University once worked out a report， saying that the loss the air pollution brings to Chinese economy every year could account for 1.2% of the GDP based on the cost of illness approach， or 3.8% based on the will of payment approach.
Mu Quan and Zhang Shiqiu from the School of Environment Sciences and Engineering initiated the research into the loss of social economy caused by the smog in January 2013. they found that the one month’s smog at that time caused the direct loss of at least 23 billion yuan the transportation and health systems in China. Of them， the delayed flights caused the loss of 270 million yuan； the sealed expressways lost the tolls of 188 million yuan and the cost of treatment for the smog-caused disease amounted to 22.6 billion yuan.
During the six smoggy days from February 21 to 26， 2014， the government of Shijiazhuang closed， or limited the production of 2，025 enterprises and reduced the electricity output. In addition， 146 open mines and 35 underground mines were closed， along with all sandpits， leading to the direct loss of 6.03 billion yuan.
How Dealing with Smog Affects the GDP？
Cao Heping， vice president of the Economics School of Beijing University， said that the influence of smog over China’s GDP is undoubtedly one of the most attention-worthy problems for the decision-makers. A leader of a core governmental department once directly asked him： “how many percentage points would Chinese economy drop had the smog been completely been removed？”
The survey made by Southern Weekly found that most of interviewed economists （12 out of 18） believed that the dealing with smog will have large impact over the Chinese economy in a short while. Five economists said the impact needs to be watched for a while. Only Justin Yifu Lin said that the environmental issues will not affect the economic growth.
Fang Sihai， chief economist from Hongyuan Securities， said that the dealing with smog will lower the GDP growth rate by 0.5 percent in 2014 （Previously， he forecast that the economic growth rate of China is expected to reach 7%. “It is not a disaster if the economic growth rate dropped to that level，” he sad. Guan Qingyou， vice president of the Research Institute of Minsheng Bank， said that the smog problem might be an important factor for the government to re-define the objective of economic growth next year. Apart from short-term problems in economic development， the deterioration of environment in the long term might accelerate the vanishing of China’s“population dividends”， as warned by Lu Zhengwei， chief economist of Industrial Bank. Many economists attributed the fast economic growth of China in the past 30 years to the release of “population dividends”. According to Lu Zhengwei， there have been enough researches and tests to confirm the connection between the smog and the shortened lifespan in North China or the rising morbidity of cancer in China. “The environmental protection plays an important in the expected lifespan of people in a country，” said Lu Zhengwei. “In the future， the environmental issues might cause the increasingly serious problem in the payment of pension funds.”
The universal shortage in the systematic quantitative analysis， the economists could not give a clear answer to the question put forward by Chinese political leaders， but the influence remains there and it is going to be big.
Resource Re-allocation or Interest Redistribution
By now， both the central government and local authorities of China have invested massively in the dealing with the smog.
Qingdao announced the investment of 460 million yuan to handle the smog. Wuhan is going to put 28 billion yuan reducing the smog in the next four years. Beijing， above all， is going to spend 760 billion yuan to get back the clean air…. The central government is throwing more capital into this field. The Ministry of Finance set up a fund with 5 billion yuan to abate the air pollution in Beijing， Tianjin and Hebei. The State Council published the Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Disposal， according to which 1.75 trillion yuan is going to be raised and invested through enterprises， social funds， private donations and price leverage.
Dealing with smog has already boosted the environmental protection-related products and industry. The data from Taobao.com showed the 181% more people – compared with a year before –bought gauze masks from Taobao.com by November 30， 2013， and the number of consumers having bought air cleaners increased by 131%. The total spending on gauze masks， air cleaners and other products related to the smog amounted to 870 million yuan.
The pharmaceutical enterprises began to invest into the drugs to treat the health problems caused by PM2.5. One of them is Guangzhou Pharma， the sales of its drugs to clean the respiratory system and deal with coughing increased dramatically in these months. Wang Jinnan， deputy director of the Environmental Planning Institute at the Ministry of Environmental Protection， figured out the cost of air pollution prevention and disposal. The steel industry will suffer the loss of 81.2 billion yuan； the cement and coke industry will have to respectively endure the loss of 16.7 billion yuan and 14.2 billion yuan. Chen Yafei， a fellow with the Coal Chemical Institute under China Academy of Coal Sciences， said that the golden age of coal which lasted 10 years was already ended with the slowdown in economic growth and clean energy.
The international trade of iron ore was impacted as well. In order to meet the increasingly strict air quality standards， the steel plants and power plants are looking for raw materials with lower sulfur contents. The global mineral giants that can provide high-quality iron ores and coals will greatly benefit from this. The experts forecast that the efforts in China might drive out the small iron ore suppliers from Iran， Mexico and Vietnam， but will provide grand opportunities for Vale， BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto to increase their exports to China.
After the end of golden age of the traditional coal， power and steel industry， China is going to face the golden age of new energy and environmental protection. Credit Suisse’s analysts pointed out the energy from waste， pollution and waste disposal and cement disposal will have fast increase in the next five years. China is believed to initiate the 10-year or longer investment into the stricter environmental regulation and the green technologies.
To Remove the Economic Bubbles
The dealing with smog indeed leads to the re-allocation of resources. Zuo Xiaolei， chief economist of Galaxy Securities， said that the handling of smog was just to return the economy to its natural form.”
“I strongly objected the saying that handling the smog will reduce the economic growth rate. This is not rational，”she said. The essence of dealing with the smog is actually to remove the “bubbles”from Chinese economy， which is a proof that the past growth is not substantial. Now， more and more economists put the environmental protection into the consideration of Chinese economy.
Liu Shengjun from CEIBS Lujiazui International Finance Research Center said that the smog has highlighted the environmental cost of Chinese economy and equalized the cost of economic development since the air is the same to every people. It reminded people of another question： can the cost of handling smog be shared as well？
Jia Kang， head of the Financial Science Institute at the Ministry of Finance， put forward this sensitive question in the parliamentary sessions ending March 14. In his opinion， China should dissolve the threat from worsening environment through economic methods， which include various kinds of environment and resource taxes.
In 2014， the taxes imposed on coal and rare earth might be launched. In addition， China needs to improve the pricing system for processed oil， unify the price for natural gas， use tiered water and gas pricing.
Then， the g o v e r n m e n t needs to keep the low-income earners from suffering worse life because of the environmental protection. The middle class should be encouraged to get involved in fighting against the smog in an acceptable pattern.
All in all， the key to continuing the fight against the smog rests with the top decision-makers’ determination. This is related to the future outlook of Chinese economy.