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新建机场,需要对旅客吞吐量进行预测,以确定机场的建设规模,避免投资失误;正在运营的机场,需要通过对旅客吞吐量的预测,合理、科学地制订年度计划和中短期发展规划;航空公司关注机场旅客吞吐量的发展趋势,以便制订有效的航线航班计划。本文通过分析1980年至2001年南京机场旅客吞吐量数据和江苏省有关经济指标数据的相关特性,建立了南京禄口国际机场旅客吞吐量的模型,通过检验,可以用于预测南京机场未来1～5年的年度及月度旅客吞吐量的发展趋势。
The new airport needs to predict the passenger throughput in order to determine the construction scale of the airport and avoid investment mistakes. The airport under operation needs to make an annual plan and short-term and medium-term development plan rationally and scientifically through the forecast of the passenger throughput. The Company is concerned about the development trend of airport passenger throughput in order to formulate an effective route flight plan. This paper establishes a model of passenger throughput of Nanjing Lukou International Airport by analyzing the passenger throughput data of Nanjing Airport from 1980 to 2001 and the relevant economic indicators of Jiangsu Province. Through the test, it can be used to predict the future throughput of Nanjing Airport in the next 1 ~ 5-year annual and monthly passenger throughput trends.