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根据IPCC关于交通能源消费碳排放量的计算方法,对2005-2011年江苏省交通碳排量构成和交通碳排放强度进行了测算.基于LMDI分解技术,从交通能源强度因素、交通运输业经济份额因素、第三产业增加值因素和交通能源结构因素四个方面对江苏省交通碳排放的变化进行分析.测算和分析结果表明:交通能源强度呈明显下降状态,在其影响下交通碳排放强度呈下降趋势,说明交通能源利用率不断提高;交通碳排量呈增长的趋势,第三产业增加值因素影响最大,体现为正效应,促进交通碳排放,交通能源强度因素和交通运输业经济份额因素体现为负效应,交通能源结构因素除2011年均体现为负效应,抑制交通碳排放.
According to IPCC’s calculation method of carbon emissions from transport energy consumption, the composition of transport carbon emissions and transport carbon intensity in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2011 were calculated.According to the LMDI decomposition technology, from the energy intensity of transportation, the economic share of transport Factor, the added value of the tertiary industry and the factor of transportation energy structure, the paper analyzes the changes of transportation carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from four aspects.The results of calculation and analysis show that the intensity of transportation energy is obviously decreased, and under the influence of transportation carbon intensity The downward trend indicates that the utilization rate of transportation energy is increasing. The transportation carbon emission shows a tendency of increasing. The tertiary industry has the greatest impact on the added value of the tertiary industry. This reflects the positive effect, the promotion of transportation carbon emissions, the transportation energy intensity and the economic share of transportation Reflected as a negative effect, traffic energy structure factors in addition to 2011 showed a negative effect, inhibiting traffic carbon emissions.