总量预测2013年我国汽车需求主要受三方面因素影响:一是发展规律,二是宏观经济形势,三是政策等。(1)发展规律从发达国家的发展经验来看,汽车发展一般经过两个快速发展期。第一个是高速增长期,千人保有量由5辆达到20辆左右,这一时期持续时间较短,一般在5年左右,但增速比较高,一般在30%左右。第二个是快速平稳 Total Forecast China’s auto demand in 2013 was mainly affected by three factors: First, the law of development; second, the macroeconomic situation; third, policies and so on. (1) Law of Development According to the experience of developed countries, automobile development generally goes through two rapid development periods. The first is a period of rapid growth. The number of holdings of a thousand people is about 20 vehicles from 5 vehicles. The duration of this period is relatively short, usually about 5 years, but the growth rate is relatively high, generally around 30%. The second is fast and smooth