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基于2007—2009年广东省城镇居民的调查数据,运用双栏式模型对城镇居民户内鲜乳品消费的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,家庭收入水平和鲜乳品价格对城镇居民鲜乳品消费的参与决策和支出决策具有显著影响;饲料粮(如豆粕)价格的高低、家庭是否有老人或小孩以及是否有冰箱等也是影响鲜乳品消费的重要因素;同时,城镇居民户内鲜乳品消费量与鸡蛋价格、户主文化程度、家庭人口规模呈显著正相关;在经济越发达的地区,家庭鲜乳品消费支出比重也就越大;受“三鹿奶粉事件”影响,广东省城镇居民户内鲜乳品消费量逐年减少。因此,有必要从消费者、企业和政府3个层面采取有效措施扩大鲜乳品消费。
Based on the survey data of urban residents in Guangdong Province from 2007 to 2009, the author uses two-column model to analyze the influencing factors of fresh dairy consumption in urban households. The results show that family income level and fresh dairy product prices have a significant impact on decision-making and expenditure decision-making of urban residents’ consumption of fresh dairy products; the price of feed grains (such as soybean meal), whether the family has old people or children and whether there are refrigerators, Meanwhile, the consumption of fresh dairy products in urban households is significantly and positively correlated with the price of eggs, the education level of household heads, and the size of household population. In the more economically developed regions, the consumption expenditure of fresh dairy products in the household is also greater. Affected by “Sanlu milk powder incident ”, the consumption of fresh dairy products in urban households in Guangdong Province decreased year by year. Therefore, it is necessary to take effective measures to expand the consumption of fresh dairy products from the three levels of consumers, enterprises and governments.