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当今世界,国际经济与国际政治之间的相互渗透作用日益加深,国际贸易对国际冲突的影响亦愈加深厚。在“21世纪海上丝绸之路”发展战略背景下,笔者采用COW4.0版本中国与东盟十国间冲突与合作数据及世界银行双边贸易数据为面板数据,通过联立方程模型,验证了中国与东盟之间贸易对双边冲突的作用。结果发现,中国与东盟双边贸易不断发展的过程能够削减双边已有冲突,并且能在一定程度上制约潜在冲突的发生。
In today’s world, the mutual infiltration between the international economy and international politics has deepened, and the impact of international trade on international conflicts has also deepened. Under the background of the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” development strategy, the author used the COW version 4.0 conflict-cooperation data between China and ASEAN countries and the World Bank’s bilateral trade data as panel data and verified the simultaneous equation model. The Effect of Trade between China and ASEAN on Bilateral Conflicts As a result, it has been found that the process of continuous development of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN can reduce existing bilateral conflicts and can, to a certain extent, limit the occurrence of potential conflicts.