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近年来,国家对房地产宏观调控采取的多种政策,可划分为五类,即房地产开发投资规模、土地供应、金融信贷、住房供给结构、税收等政策。文中就这五类政策对房地产市场的影响进行了实证分析和定性分析。实证分析中采取了12个指标,利用了向量自回归模型和广义脉冲响应函数,就五类调控政策和市场形势对住房价格、成交量以及住房需求的影响时间和影响程度进行分析。定性分析中主要分析利率、税收、广义货币供应量M2、高房价等四个因素变化对住房价格、成交量以及住房需求的影响。
In recent years, various policies adopted by the state on real estate macro regulation and control can be divided into five categories, namely, the scale of investment in real estate development, land supply, financial credit, housing supply structure and taxation policies. The paper analyzes the impact of these five policies on the real estate market by empirical analysis and qualitative analysis. Empirical analysis using 12 indicators, using the vector autoregression model and generalized impulse response function, on the five types of regulatory policies and the market situation of housing prices, trading volume and housing demand impact analysis of the time and impact. Qualitative analysis of the main analysis of interest rates, taxes, broad money supply M2, high prices and other four factors on housing prices, trading volume and housing demand.