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公路边坡由于施工的影响,监测点时升时降,累计沉降量是震荡序列。本文采用三种模型对累计沉降量进行预测。结果表明GM(1,1)和DGM(1,1)预测曲线并不能反映实测值曲线走势,预测值与实测值的偏离程度较大,预测精度较低。SDGM(1,1)模型无论在与实测值曲线走势、与实测值接近程度还是在残差平方和或者平均相对误差上精度要高于其他两种模型,在P,C值上,SDGM(1,1)模型实现“级”的跳跃,是一个非常理想的预测模型。
Due to the impact of the construction of highway slope, the monitoring points rise and fall, the cumulative settlement is the shock sequence. In this paper, three models are used to predict the cumulative settlement. The results show that the prediction curves of GM (1,1) and DGM (1,1) do not reflect the trend of the measured curve. The deviation between the predicted value and the measured value is large, and the prediction accuracy is low. The accuracy of SDGM (1,1) model is higher than that of the other two models in terms of the trend with the measured value, the closeness with the measured value, the residual square error or the average relative error. SDGM (1) 1) The model to achieve “level ” jump, is a very good prediction model.