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研究稻纵卷叶螟卷叶率与残虫量的关系,建立相关模型,为该害虫的预测预报和防治提供科学依据。选取15块田间稻纵卷叶螟种群发生的调查数据,用残虫量(y)和卷叶率(x)分别拟合指数函数、一元三次函数、一元二次函数、直线函数、对数函数和幂函数6种不同模型,并用未建模的7块稻田资料进行验证应用。结果表明,各模型相关系数均达极显著水平,但综合Q、Syx值分析,以指数函数模型y=0.726 4e0.0358x为最优(Syx值最小,Q值也相对较小)。参与验证应用的3个模型,预测精度均在71%以上,其中指数函数模型预测精度高达91.7%。另外,利用优选出来的数学模型建立了稻纵卷叶螟残虫量速查表。
To study the relationship between the leafroll rate of rice leaf roller and the amount of the residual worm and to establish the relevant model to provide a scientific basis for the prediction and prevention of the pest. The survey data of 15 populations of rice leaf roller were selected, the exponential function, one yuan cubic function, one quadratic function, linear function, logarithmic function And power function of six different models, and uncasting of seven paddy fields to verify the application. The results showed that the correlation coefficient of each model reached an extremely significant level. However, based on the Q and Syx values, the exponential function model y = 0.726 4e0.0358x was the best (the Syx value was the smallest and the Q value was relatively small). The three models involved in the verification application have the prediction accuracy above 71%, of which the prediction accuracy of the exponential function model is as high as 91.7%. In addition, the use of the mathematical model out of the establishment of the rice leaf roller borer checklist.