论文部分内容阅读
以行为金融理论和复杂网络理论为基础,针对投资者投资行为的策略性模仿特征,基于投资者间的网络关联结构,构建网络协调博弈策略下的股市羊群行为演化模型,运用理论分析和模拟仿真的方法,对股市羊群行为的演化过程进行系统性分析。研究结果表明:网络协调博弈策略下的股市羊群行为演化存在均衡状态,并受网络结构特征和投资行为风险占优度影响;投资者选择投资行为的比例与相关行为策略风险占优度之间呈阶梯状的非严格递减;若某种投资行为风险占优,且网络连通度越大、异质性越强,则越有利于投资者选择相应的投资行为。所建立的模型及分析结论在一定程度上阐述了网络视角下影响股市投资者投资行为变化的关键要素,解释了股市羊群行为演变的内在性规律,为金融管理部门制定宏观政策起到了一定理论支撑。
Based on behavioral finance theory and complex network theory, aiming at the strategic imitation characteristics of investor’s investment behavior and based on the network-related structure among investors, a evolutionary model of stock market herding behavior under network coordinated game strategy is constructed. By using theoretical analysis and simulation Simulation method, the systematic analysis of the evolution of the herd behavior in the stock market. The results show that the evolution of stock herding behavior under the network coordinated game strategy has a balanced state and is influenced by the network structure characteristics and the dominance of the investment risk. The ratio of investor’s choice of investment behavior and the risk dominance of the relevant behavior strategy A step-like non-strict decline; if a certain kind of investment risk predominance, and the greater the network connectivity, the more heterogeneous, the more conducive to investors to choose the appropriate investment behavior. The model and the conclusion of the analysis explain to some extent the key elements affecting the changes in the investment behavior of the stock market investors from the network perspective and explain the inherent law of the herd behavior evolution in the stock market and play a certain theoretical role in the macro- support.