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本文分析了消费品价格指数(CPI)和工业品价格指数(PPI)构成差异及传递渠道障碍,认为短期内它们不会同步变动。使用门限误差修正模型对我国两种价格指数的关系进行实证分析发现:PPI与CPI存在协整,它们之间长期均衡偏离大于门限值,CPI向下调整,PPI向上调整,偏离快速减小;当长期均衡偏离小于门限值时,两种价格指数的调整不显著,这说明PPI高于CPI是一种常态,并不能以此断定PPI超过CPI就会引起CPI进一步上涨,PPI并不是CPI一个较好的先行指标。
This article analyzes the composition of the consumer price index (CPI) and the industrial product price index (PPI) and the barriers to delivery channels and concludes that they will not change in the short term. Empirical analysis of the relationship between the two price indices using the threshold error correction model shows that there is cointegration between PPI and CPI, the long-run equilibrium deviation between them is greater than the threshold, the CPI is adjusted downward, the PPI is adjusted upward and the deviation is rapidly reduced. When the long-run equilibrium deviation is less than the threshold, the adjustment of the two price indices is not significant, indicating that PPI is more than CPI is a normal, not to conclude that PPI will lead to CPI further CPI rose, PPI is not a CPI A good first indicator.