论文部分内容阅读
背景与目的:国内有关老年恶性肿瘤发病趋势的研究较少,本文分析1973～1999年上海市区老年人泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤的发病趋势。方法:按照国际疾病分类(ICD-9)三位数字进行编码。依据有关年份人口普查资料中的性别、年龄构成,用内插法和外推法估算各年的年龄组平均人口数。用世界标准人口计算每三年合并资料的标化发病率。发病率年均变化百分比用线性回归计算,并用病例数加权。结果:27年间,上海市区老年人群中男性前列腺癌、膀胱癌和肾癌的发病率呈上升趋势,年均变化率分别为6.60%、1.15%和5.30%,女性肾癌发病率迅速上升,年均变化率为4.58%。结论:27年间,上海市区老年男性前列腺癌、肾癌和膀胱癌发病率上升,女性膀胱癌发病率相对稳定。
BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: There are few studies on the trend of the incidence of malignant tumors in the elderly in China. This article analyzes the incidence trends of urinary system common malignancies in Shanghai elderly from 1973 to 1999. Methods: Three-digit numbers were coded according to International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9). Based on the gender and age composition in the census data of the relevant year, the average age population in each year is estimated by interpolation and extrapolation. Calculate the standardized incidence of combined data every three years using the world’s standard population. The average percentage change in morbidity was calculated using linear regression and weighted with the number of cases. Results: The incidence rates of male prostate cancer, bladder cancer and renal cancer in Shanghai urban elderly population increased in 27 years with an annual average rate of 6.60%, 1.15% and 5.30% respectively. The incidence of renal cancer in women rapidly increased, The average annual rate of change was 4.58%. Conclusion: In the past 27 years, the incidence of prostate cancer, kidney cancer and bladder cancer in the elderly men in Shanghai area has risen, and the incidence of bladder cancer in women has been relatively stable.