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1973年 ,曾有人预测 ,到 2 0 0 0年油价每桶将为 10 0美元 ,实际上今天的油价仍一直保持在每桶 10 15美元。据认为 ,石油在相当长的时期内并不会短缺。尽管石油储量在日益消耗 ,但是人们所能获得的最终数量的石油 ,则是通过经济效果和技术两者来确定的。由于石油是在地层的裂缝和孔隙中分布的 ,因此 1口普通井几乎都有 70 %的油仍然被卷闭在地层中而采不出来 ,所以提高油井产能仍有很大潜力。同时技术的进步也为勘探和开发新领域的石油开辟了道路。即使石油被用光了 ,也仍然还有可以替代它的能源。
In 1973, it was predicted that the price of oil would be 100 US dollars per barrel by the year of 2000. In fact, today’s oil price has remained at 1015 U.S. dollars per barrel. It is believed that oil will not be in short supply for a long period of time. Although oil reserves are increasingly depleted, the ultimate amount of oil that people can obtain is determined through both economic effects and technology. Since oil is distributed in the fractures and pores of the formation, almost 70% of an ordinary well is still trapped in the formation and cannot be extracted, so there is still great potential for increasing oil well productivity. At the same time, technological progress has also opened the way for the exploration and development of new areas of oil. Even if oil is used up, there is still energy to replace it.