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鉴于目前航空备件需求计算应用泊松公式存在计算结果误差较大的问题,依据历史故障数据并应用广义更新过程建立反映历史故障数据以及维修能力的可靠性分布模型,同时针对目前历史故障数据主要是小样本事件,应用贝叶斯方法并采用切片采样法对可靠性分布模型进行参数估计。最后通过实例进行分析,结果表明实际故障次数和实际故障情况较为吻合,增大了模型的应用范围。
In view of the fact that there is a large error in the calculation results of the application of aviation spare parts demand calculation formula, the reliability distribution model reflecting historical failure data and maintenance capability is established based on the historical failure data and the generalized updating process. In view of the fact that the historical failure data are mainly Small sample events, the Bayesian method and the slice sampling method to estimate the reliability distribution model. Finally, an example is used to analyze the results. The results show that the actual fault times are in good agreement with the actual fault conditions, which increases the application range of the model.