预测经济前景非常困难,目前看来,回顾国际经验是最好的预测手段。国际经验指出:首先,任何国家的长期经济增长率约为每年2%(人均真实GDP);其次,经济增长率总是会向这个数字靠拢;最后,每个国家的增长路径与它本身的政策和特质有关系。将这个分析框架应用于中国的经济预测中,可以发现从1960年代到80年代的某个节点之间,中国的经济增长率要远远低于预测值。当时中国年均增长率为 Forecasting the economic outlook is very difficult, and it seems to me that reviewing international experience is the best forecast. International experience shows that first of all, the long-term economic growth rate of any country is about 2% per annum (real per capita GDP); secondly, the rate of economic growth will always be closer to that figure; and finally, the growth path of each country and its own policy And traits related. Applying this framework to China’s economic forecast, one can find that between the 1960s and the 1980s, China’s economic growth rate is much lower than the forecast. At that time, China’s average annual growth rate was