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2 0 0 3年的世界经济形势仍然不平静。自从 2 0 0 1年美国新经济泡沫崩溃之后 ,世界经济步入了低谷 ,尽管到 2 0 0 3年年底 ,来自美国商务部的数据显示 2 0 0 4年美国经济的形势将好于上年 ,但是欧洲和日本的经济并没有实质性的好转 ,在一个相互依存的时代 ,这将制约美国经济的复苏。2 0 0 3年伊拉克战争的爆发和 SARS的突然出现更是增加了世界经济复苏的不确定性。由于发达国家贸易保护主义抬头和 2 0 0 3年 9月在墨西哥坎昆召开的 WTO部长级会议以失败告终 ,全球贸易的发展和多边贸易体系的吸引力均受到极大的损害。 2 0 0 2年美元贬值之后 ,国际金融体系的波动性便开始增加。2 0 0 3年国际舆论纷纷指责人民币 ,鼓吹人民币升值 ,其实关键的问题并不在于中国 ,而是反映了当前国际金融体系中的不对称性和不稳定性。中国经济仍然保持了稳定快速的增长 ,但是围绕着宏观经济出现了各种争议 ,比如关于中国的宏观经济是否过热、未来中国将出现通货紧缩还是通货膨胀压力、人民币汇率水平和汇率制度是否需要调整等等。从这些年围绕中国经济的各种争议来看 ,也反映出两个问题 ,一是中国经济已经日益融入全球化之中 ,要判断中国的经济增长潜力 ,就不能不对中国在全球分工中的地位和作用有客观的评价。二是越来越?
The world economic situation in 2003 is still not calm. Since the collapse of the new economic bubble in the United States in 2001, the world economy has reached its lowest point. Although the data from the U.S. Department of Commerce show that by the end of 2003, the U.S. economy will be in a better shape than in the previous year However, the economies of Europe and Japan have not been substantially improved. In an interdependent era, this will restrain the economic recovery in the United States. The outbreak of the Iraq war in 2003 and the sudden appearance of SARS further increased the uncertainty of the world economic recovery. Due to the rise of trade protectionism in developed countries and the unsuccessful WTO ministerial meeting held in Cancun, Mexico in September 2003, the development of global trade and the attractiveness of the multilateral trading system have been greatly harmed. After the devaluation of the U.S. dollar in 2002, the volatility of the international financial system started to increase. In fact, the international public opinion accused the renminbi in 2000 and advocated the appreciation of renminbi. In fact, the key issue does not lie in China. Instead, it reflects the asymmetry and instability in the current international financial system. China’s economy has maintained a steady and rapid growth. However, various controversies have arisen around the macroeconomy, such as whether China’s macroeconomy is overheated, whether China will experience deflation or inflationary pressures in the future, whether the RMB exchange rate and the exchange rate system need to be adjusted and many more. Judging from the various controversies surrounding China’s economy these years, two problems are also reflected. First, the economy of China has increasingly become integrated with globalization. To judge China’s potential for economic growth, one can not fail to comment on China’s position in the global division of labor And the role of an objective evaluation. Second, more and more?