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气候变化背景下中国玉米稳产的农业适应性策略研究,对于确保粮食安全和优化农业资源配置具有重要的现实意义。本文以玉米为例,对中国农业生产是否“靠天吃饭”这个老话题给予了一种新的检验。通过2004-2014年玉米主产区12个省(自治区)166个地级市(区、盟、自治州)的统计数据,研究发现玉米种质创新和灌溉条件改善作为减缓气候变化不利影响的适应性策略对稳定玉米产量具有重要的促进作用,而干旱对玉米单位面积产量具有显著负向影响。基于玉米种质创新、灌溉条件和干旱指数的联合检验结果表明,2004-2014年中国玉米生产“靠天吃饭”的局面已有所改观。然而,支撑玉米有效应对干旱的灌溉手段是不断扩张的机井数量,这对于农业灌溉水资源短缺的华北和西北地区,过度开采地下水资源,将加重粮食生产的生态环境脆弱性和安全性风险。“十三五”时期,在平衡粮食生产和环境资源的双目标时,有必要缩减农业灌溉水资源负荷过重地区的粮食生产任务,并就这一问题给予相关的科研论证。
The study on agricultural adaptability strategy of China’s corn stable production under the background of climate change is of great practical significance for ensuring food security and optimizing the allocation of agricultural resources. In this paper, corn is used as an example to give a new test on whether China’s agricultural production is “old-fashioned” or not. Based on the statistical data of 166 prefecture-level cities (autonomous regions) from 2004 to 2014 in the main producing areas of maize, it was found that the innovation of maize germplasm and the improvement of irrigation conditions were taken as the adaptability to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change The strategy has an important role in stabilizing corn yield, while drought has a significant negative impact on corn yield per unit area. Based on the innovation of corn germplasm, the combined test results of irrigation conditions and drought index show that the situation of China’s corn production in 2004-2014 has changed somewhat. However, the effective means of supporting drought-tolerant irrigation are expanding the number of wells, which will aggravate the ecological vulnerability and safety risks of food production in over-exploitation of groundwater resources in North and Northwest China, where agricultural irrigation water is scarce. During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, it is necessary to reduce the task of food production in areas with overloaded irrigation water resources for agriculture when balancing the dual goals of grain production and environmental resources, and give relevant scientific research on this issue.