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在论述水库预蓄效益与风险分析的必要性和主要困难的基础上，首先提出一种风险率的计算方法；然后提出一种以经济效益与风险率为目标的水库预蓄水位模糊优化控制模型及其求解方法，可供汛期分期抬高汛限水位或实时决策控制预蓄水位时使用，为决策者提供有依据的信息；最后通过优选丰满发电厂水库预蓄高度算例，较详细地叙述模糊优化控制模型的建立及其求解方法，说明建模及求解方法理论是严密的，计算简便且易于推广应用。
On the basis of discussing the necessity and main difficulties of reservoir pre-deposit benefit and risk analysis, a method of calculating risk ratio is first proposed. Then, a fuzzy optimal control of reservoir pre-deposit water level based on economic benefit and risk rate Model and its solving method, which can be used when the flood limiting water level is raised in phases of flood season or the pre-water level is controlled by real-time decision-making, so as to provide decision-makers with the basis information. Finally, Describes the establishment of fuzzy optimization control model and its solution method, which shows that the theory of modeling and solution method is rigorous, easy to calculate and easy to popularize.