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就短生命周期产品的订货时机而言,零售商通常偏好延迟订货,而制造商一般鼓励零售商预先订货,制造商和零售商对于订货时机的选择偏好通常是冲突的,对此进行协调可以提高供应链效率。目前,关于供应链订货时机的文献大多假定企业是风险中性的,遵循风险厌恶假设的文献较少。由一个风险厌恶型制造商和风险中性零售商组成的二级供应链中,基于报童模型,探讨了制造商的风险厌恶对供应链订货时机的影响,研究发现多数情况下供应链将处于制造商不利的订货方式,为此设计了回购契约来提供Pareto改善,并分析了回购契约实行的条件。数值分析显示,实行回购契约时,批发价和回购价的设置要兼顾零售商与供应商双方的利益,这样才能满足Pareto改善的条件;另外,供应商的目标利润越小,回购契约越易提供Pareto改善,当目标利润大到一定程度,回购契约不再有效。研究得到了如下创新成果:与风险中性的情形相比较,发现在延迟订货方式下,供应商的最优生产量除了和价格、成本相关外,还与供应商的目标利润密切相关;在柔性订货方式下,供应商的最优生产量并非独立于零售商预订量,而是随预订量递增,且零售商会因供应商的风险厌恶而加大预订量。研究成果对于丰富供应链订货时机文献具有一定价值。
Retailers often prefer to delay orders for short life cycle product orders, while manufacturers generally encourage retailers to pre-order, manufacturers and retailers often have conflicting preferences for ordering opportunities, and coordination can improve Supply chain efficiency. At present, most of the literature on the timing of supply chain ordering assumes that firms are risk-neutral and there are few articles that follow the assumption of risk aversion. In a two-level supply chain consisting of a risk-averse manufacturer and a risk-neutral retailer, based on the Newsboy model, the impact of risk aversion on supply chain timing is explored. In most cases, the supply chain will be under manufacturing In this case, the repurchase contract was designed to provide Pareto improvement and the conditions for the repurchase contract were analyzed. Numerical analysis shows that the implementation of the repo contract, the wholesale price and repo price set to take into account both the interests of retailers and suppliers in order to meet Pareto improvement conditions; In addition, the smaller the target profit suppliers, repurchase contracts The easier it is to provide Pareto improvement, the repo contract is no longer effective when the target profit is large. The following innovations have been obtained: Compared with the risk-neutral situation, we find that in the delayed order, the optimal production volume of suppliers is related to the target profit of suppliers in addition to the price and cost. In flexible orders By way of example, the optimal production volume for a supplier is not independent of the retailer’s booked quantity, but increases with the booked quantity, and the retailer increases the bookings due to supplier risk aversion. The research results have some value for enriching the timing documents of supply chain.