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随着生态安全日益受到关注,耕地利用面临的生态安全约束也日趋加重,对耕地资源的稳定利用及生产能力构成了潜在威胁,因此,研究生态安全约束下耕地稳定性及其对粮食生产的影响具有重要意义。本文以东北地区为例,从多源生态安全约束成因出发在分析了地区生态安全约束下“不稳定”耕地规模及空间分布的基础上,通过设计基于生态安全约束强度的“不稳定”耕地后续用途转换多情景模拟方法,系统评估了生态安全情景、综合权衡情景和粮食安全情景下“不稳定”耕地潜在用途转换对地区粮食生产能力的影响。研究发现:(1)生态安全约束下,东北地区存在427.51万hm~2“不稳定”耕地,林区过度开垦是地区“不稳定”耕地形成的最主要因素,46.26%“不稳定”耕地继续耕种会影响生态环境或者经过工程改造后也难以保证稳定收获。(2)三种情境下,东北地区“不稳定”耕地潜在转换量分别为427.51万hm~2、387.97万hm~2和395.39万hm~2,分别占地区耕地总量的13.79%、12.52%和1.28%,耕地转换用途主要集中于退耕还林、还草等。(3)三种情景下,“不稳定”耕地潜在用途转换将导致地区粮食生产能力分别下降12.62%、11.73%和6.90%,减少量相当于2010—2015年全国年均新增粮食总产量。总体来看,生态安全约束下东北地区耕地资源稳定性对地区粮食生产能力已造成潜在威胁,因此,东北地区需要统筹好“耕地保护”、“生态红线”与“粮食安全”三者之间的关系,加强耕地数量、质量、生态“三位一体”保护,优先选择“不稳定”耕地推进“藏粮于地”战略思想,实现耕地资源永久持续利用。
With the increasing concern of ecological security, the ecological security constraints faced by the utilization of cultivated land are also aggravating day by day, posing a potential threat to the stable utilization of farmland resources and production capacity. Therefore, the study on the stability of cultivated land and its impact on grain production under ecological security constraints It is of great significance. Taking Northeast China as an example, based on the origin of multi-source ecological security constraints, based on the analysis of the “unstable ” cultivated land size and spatial distribution under the constraints of regional ecological security constraints, by designing the “unstable” “Cultivated Land Subsequent Use Conversion Multiple-Scenarios Simulation System to Evaluate the Impact of Potential Uses of Cultivated Land Conversion on Grain Production Capacity in the Context of Ecological Security, Synthetic Tradeoffs Scenarios and Food Security Scenarios. The results showed that: (1) Under the restriction of ecological security, there were 4,275,100 hm ~ 2 ”unstable“ cultivated land in northeastern China. Over-reclamation was the most important factor for the formation of ”unstable“ cultivated land in the region, with 46.26% Unstable ”Continue to cultivate cultivated land will affect the ecological environment or after the transformation is difficult to ensure stable harvest. (2) Under the three scenarios, the potential conversion of “unstable” arable land in Northeast China are respectively 4.2751 million hm ~ 23.8797 million hm ~ 2 and 3.9539 million hm ~ 2, accounting for 13.79% of the total arable land in the region, 12.52% and 1.28% respectively. The conversion of arable land mainly focuses on returning farmland to forestland and grassland. (3) Under the three scenarios, the “unstable” potential conversion of cultivated land will lead to a decrease of 12.62%, 11.73% and 6.90% in the grain production capacity of the region respectively, corresponding to a decrease of the total annual grain output in 2010-2015 Yield. Overall, the stability of cultivated land resources in Northeast China has posed a potential threat to the grain production capacity under the constraints of ecological security. Therefore, it is necessary for Northeast China to make overall plans for the integration of “arable land protection”, “ecological red line” and “food security” "The relationship between the three should be strengthened, and priority should be given to the protection of the quantity, quality and ecology of arable land. The strategy of arable land promotion and grain storage in the land should be given priority in order to achieve the sustainable and sustainable use of cultivated land resources.