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全球经济增长受国际金融危机影响大幅度回落,对中国经济增长影响很大。危机之后的能源电力需求出现了比较复杂的情况。本文讨论了两次危机中的短期能源电力需求走势,解析为什么GDP与电力需求关系短期可以出现比较大的背离。通过认识国际经济发展过程中的阶段性能源电力需求增长的规律,提出目前中国处于工业化城市化发展阶段,其能源电力需求增长快速而且是刚性的。在此基础上,本文讨论了国际油价与国内煤价走势,并对中国的煤价与通货膨胀进行了相关性分析。提出在国际油价上涨的带动下,近期国内煤炭价格将走高,PPI可能会比较快抬头,并传导到CPI。因此,政府应当准备相应的措施,以应对其对通货膨胀的影响。
The global economic growth has dropped significantly due to the impact of the international financial crisis and has a great impact on China’s economic growth. After the crisis energy and electricity demand appeared more complicated situation. This article discusses the trend of short-term energy demand in the two crises and analyzes why there is a big divergence in the relationship between GDP and electricity demand in the short term. By understanding the regularity of the growth of phased energy and electricity demand in the process of international economic development, it is proposed that at present China is in the stage of industrialized urbanization and its energy and electricity demand growth is fast and rigid. On this basis, this paper discusses the international oil price and domestic coal price trend, and analyzes the correlation between coal price and inflation in China. Proposed by the international oil prices, driven by the recent domestic coal prices will go up, PPI may rise faster, and transmitted to the CPI. Therefore, the government should prepare corresponding measures to deal with its impact on inflation.