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文章基于2001~2013年中国31个省、直辖市及自治区的面板数据,采用工具变量估计方法,考察了省际产业集聚对房地产价格的非线性影响。结果显示:产业集聚程度的提高是房地产价格上涨的重要原因,一旦超过某个临界值后,集聚程度的提高会抑制房地产价格,即产业集聚与房价之间存在显著的倒U型曲线关系。通过引入房地产价格省际交叉影响项进一步发现,中国房价的变动受到邻近区域房地产价格的正向冲击。同时,需求和供给因素是影响房地产价格的重要因素,实际利率对房价的影响并不显著,而城市公共物品供给水平也会显著地影响房地产价格。
Based on the panel data of China’s 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2001 to 2013, this paper investigates the non-linear impact of inter-provincial industrial agglomeration on real estate prices by using the tool-variable estimation method. The result shows that the increase of industrial agglomeration is an important reason for the real estate price rising. Once it exceeds a certain critical value, the increase of agglomeration will restrain the real estate price, that is, there is a significant inverse U-shaped curve between industrial agglomeration and house price. By introducing the inter-provincial cross-impact item of real estate prices, it was further found that the change in house prices in China was positively affected by real estate prices in the neighboring regions. At the same time, the demand and supply factors are the important factors that affect the real estate price. The real interest rate has no significant effect on the house price. However, the supply level of urban public goods will also significantly affect the real estate price.