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渤海湾盆地和苏北盆地虽然在成盆、成烃条件方面有较大差异 ,但两个盆地有着相似的油气发现规律和发现过程。对比两个盆地的储量增长特征、资源探明程度和探明速度、油田规模分布以及所处勘探阶段后认为 :渤海湾盆地油田规模分布服从对数正态分布 ,大、中型油田占油田总数的 64 % ,储量增长已越过正弦曲线的峰值期 ,总体仍处在发现高峰晚期阶段 ,预计在2 0 0 0年之后将出现新的储量增长高峰 ,预测勘探潜力主要在陆上的深层和诸多新类型油气藏以及广阔的海上勘探领域。苏北盆地油田规模不完全服从对数正态分布但正向其逼近 ,以小型和特小型油田为主 ,新增探明储量呈高基值低起伏式增长 ,目前正处在储量发现高峰早期阶段 ,约在“十五”期末可能达到储量增长峰值期 ,预测长远的勘探潜力主要在斜坡、深层、东部天然气和广阔的海域。只要研究、技术、资金等投入到位 ,预测渤海湾盆地和苏北盆地“十五”期间的油气勘探开发发展速度基本与“九五”期间相当。图 6参 4(王孝陵摘 )
Although the Bohai Bay Basin and the Subei Basin have great differences in terms of hydrocarbon generation and hydrocarbon generation, the two basins have similar hydrocarbon discovery laws and discoveries. Comparing the growth characteristics of the two basins, the degree of provenance and proven speed of resources, the size distribution of oilfields and the prospecting stage, it is considered that the oilfield scale in Bohaiwan Basin obeys the logarithm normal distribution, the large and medium-sized oilfields account for the total number of oilfields 64%. The increase in reserves has surpassed the peak period of the sine curve. Overall, it is still at the peak late stage of discovery. It is estimated that a new peak of reserves growth will occur after 2000, and the exploration potential is mainly in the deep land and many new Types of reservoirs and vast areas of offshore exploration. The scale of oilfields in the Northern Jiangsu Basin did not completely obey the logarithmic normal distribution but approached it. The small and extra-small oil fields dominated the new proven reserves, which showed a high base value and a low undulation growth. At present, it is in the early stage of peak reserves discovery At the end of the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period, it may reach the peak period of reserve growth. It is predicted that the long-term exploration potential will mainly be in the slopes, deep layers, eastern natural gas and vast sea areas. So long as research, technology and capital are put in place, it is predicted that the exploration and development of oil and gas in the Bohai Bay Basin and the Subei Basin during the Tenth Five-Year Plan will be basically at a rate comparable to that in the Ninth Five-Year Plan period. Figure 6 Senate 4 (Wang Xiaoling pick)