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本文利用中国与主要汽车生产国的汽车产业有关数据,在一个关税升级体系下垄断竞争产业发展模型的基础上,运用校准法进行了初步的经验研究。与以往汽车产业贸易政策基于寡占市场结构的经验研究不同,本文试图在垄断竞争市场结构下考察关税升级对中国汽车产业发展趋势的影响。研究表明,集合主要汽车生产国的数据后,汽车产业具有集聚发展的倾向,而我国目前较高程度的关税升级体系在其他条件不变的情况下,能够降低汽车产业实现大发展的临界条件。
Based on the data of auto industry in China and major automobile producing countries, this paper makes a preliminary empirical study using the calibration method based on the monopoly competitive industry development model under a tariff escalation system. Different from previous empirical research on automobile industry trade policy based on oligopoly market structure, this paper attempts to examine the impact of tariff escalation on the development trend of China’s automobile industry under the monopolistic competition market structure. The research shows that after aggregating data from major automobile producing countries, the auto industry has a tendency of agglomeration development. However, the current system of tariff escalation in our country can reduce the critical conditions for the automobile industry to achieve great development under other conditions.