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复杂的网购环境,频发的网购事故,严重影响顾客的网购意图;货到付款支付方式所隐含的“保险”机制能够刺激潜在需求,但可能提高退货率,增加线上企业的经营成本。如何有效权衡利弊,制定不同支付方式下的最优经营决策是线上企业必须的核心问题。利用理性预期均衡的相关知识,考虑网上预付和双模式(同时提供网上预付和货到付款)两类支付方式下顾客的购买与退货行为,研究线上企业的最优价格和库存决策。结果表明:1)零售价格在网上预付方式下比双模式下更高;2)双模式中顾客全部选择网上预付时,两类模式的相对优劣依赖企业单位营业收入以及潜在市场需求;双模式中顾客全部选择货到付款时,两类模式的相对优劣则只取决于潜在市场需求;3)双模式中全部顾客选择网上预付比选择货到付款时企业利润更高,但都小于双模式中企业的利润最大值,且该利润最大值随市场结构的变化而改变。
Complex online shopping environment, frequent online shopping accidents, seriously affecting the customer’s online shopping intent; cash on delivery payment implied “insurance ” mechanism to stimulate potential demand, but may increase the return rate and increase the operation of online businesses cost. How to effectively weigh the pros and cons, the development of different payment methods, the optimal management decision-making is the core of online business must be the problem. By using the knowledge of rational expectation equilibrium, we consider the purchase and return behavior of customers under two kinds of payment methods: online prepayment and dual mode (online prepayment and cash on delivery), and study the optimal price and stock decision of online firms. The results show that: 1) the retail price is higher in the online prepayment method than in the dual mode; 2) the relative merits and demerits of the two types of modes are dependent on the revenue of the business unit and the potential market demand when all the customers choose online prepayment in the dual mode; All customers choose cash on delivery, the relative merits of the two types of models are only dependent on the potential market demand; 3) dual mode, all customers choose online prepaid than choose cash on delivery business profits higher, but less than dual mode Chinese enterprises, the maximum profit, and the maximum profit with the changes in market structure and change.