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基于国有林权制度改革试点林场的调研数据,对比了林改前后承包户与非承包户收入水平和结构的变化,建立了双重倍差(DID)模型,运用固定效应和随机效应分析方法,估计了国有林权制度改革对承包户收入影响的净效应。结果表明,林改政策的实施在统计意义上对承包户的林业收入和农业收入水平没有产生显著影响,对总收入产生了显著的正影响,但主要贡献来自务工收入和工资性收入。另外,林改对农业收入占比、务工收入占比以及纯收入占比均产生了显著影响,但对林业收入占比几乎没有影响。最后,探讨了承包户的增收途径以及林改对其未来收入的影响。
Based on the research data of the pilot forest farm of state-owned forest tenure reform, the changes of income level and structure of contractors and non-contracted households before and after the forest reform were compared. A double-difference (DID) model was established. By using fixed effects and stochastic effects analysis, The net effect of the reform of the state-owned forest tenure system on the contracted household income. The results show that the implementation of the forest reform policy has no significant effect on the forestry income and agricultural income level of the contracted households statistically, and has a significant positive impact on the total income, but the main contribution comes from the labor income and wage income. In addition, the forest reform has a significant impact on the proportion of agricultural income, the proportion of labor income and net income, but has almost no effect on the proportion of forestry income. Finally, it explores ways to increase contractors’ income and the impact of forest reform on their future income.