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本文将Steel-Torrie序贯决策模型与Gerrard-Chiang种群密度的简易估计模型相结合,推导出了油松毛虫蛹种群的“简易序贯决策”模型。拟定蛹种群的防治指标m。=3枚蛹/株,则相对应的有蛹株率P_1=exp[-(m。/1.9318)~(0:8717)]=77％,序贯决策限模型,即q个样株中有蛹株数的上界,下界,允许误差h=0.15时的最大抽样数q_(max)=[t_a~2P_t(1-P_t)]h~2≈32。 简易序贯抽样方法仅需检查样本单元中有无虫即可,而不必逐一统计虫口数,因而比较简便。
In this paper, we combine the simple Steel-Torrie decision model and the simple estimate model of Gerrard-Chiang population density to deduce the “simple sequential decision-making” model of pupa population. Proposed pupa population control indicators m. = 3 pupal / plant, then the corresponding pupae rate P_1 = exp [- (m./1.9318) ~ (0:8717)] = 77%, sequential decision-making limited model, that is, The upper bound and the lower bound of the number of pupae, the maximum number of sampling when the error h = 0.15 is allowed q_ (max) = [t_a ~ 2P_t (1-P_t)] h ~ 2≈32. The simple sequential sampling method only needs to check whether there are insects in the sample unit, rather than counting the number of insects one by one, which is relatively simple.