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近年来,黄金作为一种投资产品愈加被人们所关注,黄金的价格也随之成为人们关注的焦点。本文先从理论的角度分析了可能会对黄金价格产生影响的因素,然后选取了1971年~2014年黄金价格的年度平均数据,采用Eviews8对数据进行多元回归分析,建立了计量经济模型,对模型进行计量经济检验(多重共线性检验,异方差检验和自相关检验)、统计意义检验和经济意义检验,分析各种因素对黄金价格波动影响的关系,并对2015年的黄金价格作出预测。通过分析,得出黄金价格与黄金产量呈负相关,与石油价格、黄金储备量、GDP呈正相关,其中石油价格对黄金价格的影响最为显著。
In recent years, as an investment product of gold, people are increasingly concerned about the price of gold has become the focus of attention. This paper first analyzes the factors that may affect the gold price from the theoretical point of view, then selects the annual average gold price data from 1971 to 2014, uses Eviews8 to conduct multiple regression analysis of the data, establishes the econometric model, Carry out econometric tests (multiple collinearity tests, heteroskedasticity tests and autocorrelation tests), statistical significance tests and economic significance tests to analyze the relationship between various factors and gold price fluctuations, and predict the 2015 gold price. Through the analysis, it is concluded that the gold price is negatively correlated with the gold output, and positively correlated with the oil price, the gold reserve and the GDP, among which the oil price has the most significant impact on the gold price.