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随着经济的持续快速发展,我国对外贸易依存度不断提高,对原油、钢铁等大宗初级商品的需求量日益增加。与此同时,大宗初级商品的价格对我国的制造业成本起到越来越重要的影响。2011年下半年,衡量制造业成本的采购经理人指数PMI曾一度下滑至50%以下,显示出我国在制造业发展方面存在一定的困难。本文借助中国大宗商品价格指数(CCPI),运用最小二乘法,探究国际大宗商品价格对我国PMI的影响。
With sustained and rapid economic development, the dependence on foreign trade in our country continues to increase, and the demand for bulk commodities such as crude oil and steel is on the rise. At the same time, the price of bulk commodities has an increasingly important impact on the cost of manufacturing in our country. In the second half of 2011, the PMI, a measure of manufacturing costs, fell below 50% for the first time, showing some difficulties in the development of manufacturing in our country. In this paper, with the help of China Commodity Price Index (CCPI), we use the least-squares method to explore the impact of international commodity prices on China’s PMI.