年初以来,固定资产投资增长高位略有放缓,消费保持稳定增长,出口显著反弹,“三驾马车”结构较2009年有所改善,对经济增长的拉动渐趋均衡,工业生产大幅提速显示经济景气度上升。但目前经济运行尚不存在过热隐忧。居民消费价格持续上涨,工业品出厂价格快速上涨,房屋销售价格高位运行,当前物价上行的压力有所显现,但通胀压力总体处于可控范围。金融机构信贷增长处于历年高位,但2月份新增额显著下降。受此影响,广义货币供应量(M_(?))、狭义货币供应量(M_(?))同比增幅均有所收窄。但是,货币信贷对实体经济的支持力度不减,与去年同期相比,票据贴现和短期贷款占比下降,中长期贷款尤其是企业中长期贷款占比上升。随着前期出台的房地产调控政策的逐步落实和细化,房价过快上涨的势头有所遏制,商品房销售量有所下滑。但是,多方面数据显示房地产市场并未明显降温,房市调控政策的效果仍然有限。综合前两个月国内经济的多方面数据,今年开局良好,全年经济增长将呈现“前高后低”的趋势,1季度末至2季度初可能是经济增长的阶段性高点。从物价的走势看,预计未来几个月温和通胀的局面还将延续。房市来看,短期内房地产市场明显降温应是小概率事件。 Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment has slightly slowed, consumption has maintained a steady growth, exports have rebounded significantly, and the structure of the “troika” has improved compared to 2009. The pull on economic growth has become increasingly balanced, and industrial production has accelerated significantly. Shows an upsurge in economic conditions. However, there are no overheating concerns in the current economic operation. The consumer price continued to rise, the ex-factory prices of industrial products rose rapidly, and the price of housing sales was operating at a high level. The current upward pressure on prices has appeared, but inflationary pressures are generally within a controllable range. The credit growth of financial institutions is at a high level over the years, but the new increase in February has dropped significantly. Affected by this, the year-on-year increases in the broad money supply (M_(?)) and narrow money supply (M_(?)) have narrowed. However, monetary and credit support for the real economy continued unabated. Compared with the same period of last year, the proportion of discounted bills and short-term loans declined. The share of medium and long-term loans, especially medium and long-term loans, increased. With the gradual implementation and refinement of the real estate control policies promulgated in the earlier period, the tendency of excessively rapid price increases has been curbed and the sales of commercial housing have declined. However, many aspects of the data show that the real estate market has not significantly cooled, and the effectiveness of the housing market regulation and control policy is still limited. Comprehensive multi-faceted data on the domestic economy in the first two months of this year will have a good start this year. The year-round economic growth will show a trend of “high before and after low,” and the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter may be a phased high of economic growth. From the perspective of price trends, it is expected that the mild inflation will continue in the coming months. From the perspective of the housing market, the apparent cooling of the real estate market in the short term should be a small probability event.