论文部分内容阅读
汶川地震灾害造成的巨额经济损失主要是财产损失,也对下半年经济增长带来一定的不利影响。但迅速启动的灾后重建会对下半年经济增长产生更大的拉动作用。综合看,2008年全年GDP增速将因灾后重建的扩张效应大于收入性损失而提高0.5个百分点。各国经验表明,灾害发生后重建活动带来的需求扩张,会引致灾后经济增速高于其潜在产出增长率和灾前经济增速。应妥善安排好灾后重建规模与进程,防止投资规模过大引发经济过热和严重通货膨胀。
The huge economic losses caused by the Wenchuan earthquake were caused by the loss of property and adverse economic growth in the second half of the year. However, the quick start of post-disaster reconstruction will have a greater stimulating effect on the economic growth in the second half of the year. In summary, GDP growth in 2008 will be 0.5 percentage points higher than the revenue loss due to the expansion effect of post-disaster reconstruction. Experience from various countries shows that the expansion of demand caused by reconstruction activities after a disaster will cause the economic growth rate after the disaster to exceed its potential output growth rate and the pre-disaster economic growth rate. The scale and process of post-disaster reconstruction should be properly arranged so as to prevent the over-investment and over-heating caused by excessive investment and cause serious inflation.