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本文采用2001—2013年中国31个省区的面板数据,考察了贸易开放对中国生育率的影响。结果显示,贸易开放对中国的生育率有显著抑制作用。此外,收入水平的提高、女性受教育水平提升以及城镇化的发展都显著的降低了中国生育水平。结果表明,随着中国改革开放的深入、城镇化以及人均收入水平的提升,中国未来的人口生育率还有进一步下降的趋势。在生育率下降、人口红利消散的今天,如何维持中国经济的长期稳定发展是中国政府亟待解决的问题。
In this paper, panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2001 to 2013 are used to examine the impact of trade liberalization on China’s fertility rate. The results show that trade liberalization has a significant inhibitory effect on China’s fertility rate. In addition, higher incomes, higher levels of female education, and urbanization have both markedly reduced fertility in China. The results show that with the deepening of China’s reform and opening up, urbanization and per capita income level, there will be a further downward trend in the future fertility rate in China. In today’s declining birth rate and demographic dividend, how to maintain the long-term stable development of China’s economy is an issue that the Chinese government needs to solve urgently.