运用最新数据分析城镇住房市场供需关系和绩效特点,展望未来时期城镇住房市场供需变化趋势:我国城镇住房市场刚性供需关系已经由趋紧转向宽松,房价长期上涨驱动力逐渐消失;住房市场表现出较明显的恶化社会分配特征,房价增长明显抑制了居住城镇化进程;未来新增家庭数下降导致新增基本住房需求呈下降趋势,既有家庭的改善性住房需求则取决于收入储蓄积累,存量市场“二手房”供给也将加快释放。 Using the latest data to analyze the relationship between supply and demand and performance characteristics of urban housing market, and looking forward to the trend of supply and demand in urban housing market in the future: the rigid supply and demand relationship between housing and urban housing in our country has been shifted from tightening to easing and the long-term upward trend in housing prices has gradually disappeared. Obviously deteriorating the characteristics of social distribution, housing prices significantly inhibited the urbanization process of growth; the future decline in the number of new households led to a decline in demand for new basic housing, existing families to improve the demand for housing depends on the accumulation of income savings, stock market “Second-hand housing ” supply will also speed up the release.