论文部分内容阅读
利用1978-2007年的马铃薯产量资料,直线滑动平均得出宁夏马铃薯的相对气象产量,并通过积分回归方法分析得出宁夏马铃薯种植气候分区指标,在地理信息系统软件支持下,利用小网格资源推算法,细化了基本气候资源分布。考虑有灌溉条件和无灌溉条件两种情况,分别对马铃薯种植进行气候分区。结果表明:不考虑灌溉条件时,宁夏马铃薯种植的适宜区主要分布在宁夏南部地区,次适宜区和可种植区主要分布在宁夏中部,不适宜种植区主要分布在北部;当考虑灌溉条件时,可种植区范围在宁夏北部明显增加。并采用歉年减产率、变异系数和减产率<-10%的年份比重形成的综合风险指数,来评估宁夏马铃薯种植的风险。分析得出:马铃薯种植的低风险区主要包括宁夏南部,中风险区主要包括盐池、中卫、中宁等地区,高风险区包括宁夏北部的大部分地区和中部的海原和同心。
Using the data of potato yield from 1978 to 2007, the relative meteorological yield of Ningxia potato was obtained by linearly sliding averaging. The regional planting index of Ningxia potato was obtained by means of integral regression analysis. With the support of GIS software, Calculated, refined the distribution of basic climate resources. Considering irrigating conditions and non-irrigating conditions, the climate division of potato planting respectively. The results showed that irrigated areas, the suitable areas for planting potato in Ningxia were mainly located in the southern part of Ningxia. The sub-suitable areas and the planting areas were mainly distributed in the central part of Ningxia, while the unfit planting areas were mainly distributed in the northern part. When irrigating conditions were considered, The range of plantable areas increased significantly in northern Ningxia. The risk index of potato planting in Ningxia was evaluated by using the composite risk index of the annual rate of decline in productivity, the coefficient of variation and the percentage of the year of <-10% yield reduction. The analysis showed that the low-risk areas for potato planting mainly include southern Ningxia, while the middle risk areas mainly include Yanchi, Zhongwei and Zhongning. The high-risk areas include Haiyuan and concentric in most areas in northern Ningxia and in the middle.