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中国经济奇迹令全世界着迷,政治商业周期理论对于理解“中国模式”大有裨益。鉴于政府主导性投资对于经济增长的根本性影响,本文从中国式分权的制度激励和外部政治经济冲击双重视角考察了1978—2012年中国的全社会固定资产投资情况。实证分析结果显示,中国的政治商业周期呈现显著的“三上二下式倒U形分布”特征,而这则同中国官员晋升逻辑密不可分,特别是同官员的政治流动密切关联。此外,研究也证实,对外部政治经济冲击而言,政治冲击的扭曲作用弱于经济冲击,而面对经济冲击时的政策差异则会对政治商业周期结构产生差异性影响。本文有助于更好地理解“中国模式”以及改进干部考核评价机制,后续的研究将讨论中国政治商业周期中官员晋升逻辑的新特点。
China’s economic miracle has fascinated the whole world. The theory of political business cycle is of great help in understanding the “China model.” In view of the fundamental influence of government-led investment on economic growth, this paper examines the total social investment in fixed assets in China from 1978 to 2012 from the perspective of both institutional incentives and external political and economic shocks. The empirical analysis shows that the political business cycle in China shows a remarkable “three-up and two-down U-shaped distribution” feature, which is closely linked with the promotion of Chinese officials, especially with official flow. In addition, the study also confirmed that external political and economic shocks, the political impact of the distorting effect is weaker than the economic impact, while the face of economic shocks when the policy differences will have a differential impact on the political and business cycle structure. This article helps to better understand the “China model” and improve the cadre appraisal mechanism. Subsequent studies will discuss the new features of officials’ promotion logic in China’s political business cycle.