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在对不考虑调洪作用的泄洪风险模式从理论上进行拓展及完善的基础上，全面分析影响梯级水库泄洪风险的不确定性因素，并结合梯级水库设计洪水的特点，提出梯级水库泄洪可靠度及风险分析模式和计算方法。初步分析了国内外大坝应承担的风险目标值，为以风险分析为基础的水库设计洪水标准的选择，合理确定泄洪工程设施布置方案及节约工程投资提供了一条较好的途径。
Based on the theoretic expansion and perfection of the flood discharge risk model that does not consider flood diversion, this paper comprehensively analyzes the uncertain factors that affect the flood discharge risk of cascade reservoirs. Based on the characteristics of design flood of cascade reservoirs, the reliability of cascade reservoir discharge is put forward And risk analysis model and calculation method. The preliminary analysis of the target value of the risks to be undertaken by dams at home and abroad provides a better approach for the selection of reservoir design flood standards based on risk analysis, reasonable arrangement of flood discharge facilities and project investment.